Is this the end for Fidel?
With his 80th birthday looming, Fidel Castro is stressed out. His nation has lost basically all of its allies and social elite and she is facing a major shift of power. Fidel has fallen ill (reportedly due to stress) and his younger (still 75 years old) brother has taken control of the socialist nation. Many people have speculated for years that the end of Fidel would be the end of Socialist Cuba, but that simply wont be the case. Like with Communist Russia or China, while the hard-line may only last for the life of the first leader, it takes a few more regimes before regulations are more relaxed. After the Soviet Union had Lenin, Stalin and Brehznev followed. China is just now emerging from hard-line Socialism despite the fact that Mao has been dead for 30 years. In a government like USSR, PROC or Cuba, there is just too much power in the hands of the elite for them to relinquish it.
The mere fact that Fidel officially passed his power on is enough to fuel the speculation that he's incapacitated in a way similar to Ariel Sharon. Sharon was not officially out of power until he'd already been in a coma for a couple of days, so it's possible that Castro is in a similar state. Article 94 of the Cuban Constitution which states "In cases of the absence, illness or death of the president of the Council of State, the first vice president assumes the president’s duties" would leave us to believe that Castro is officially out of power and his reign has come to an end. I for one, am not 100% convinced that this means an end to the Cuban embargo and the Communist spectre that sits 90 miles from Miami. Generally when power is passed from one family member to the other, there is little change in the makeup of the regime. However, Raul is at odds with the hardliners with his more liberal economic ideals and his secrecy. It has been said that Raul is even more secretive than Fidel, and that would not really bode well for the future of democracy in Cuba.
I have long believed that Cuba is the "sleeping giant" of the Western Hemisphere. There is no nation in a better position to explode onto the internation scene than Cuba. Unlike other nations with similar economic conditions (in terms of total GDP, the nations around Cuba are Uruguay, El Salvador, Turkmenistan, Oman, Nepal, North Korea, Cambodia and Cameroon) Cuba has the location, natural beauty, cultural similarity and an educated populace more able to adapt to modern Democratic society. Cuba is capable of becoming an economic power, possibly the superpower of the Caribbean, with the ability to serve as the jumping off point for cruises, international flights and tourism. Imagine if Cuban rum, cigars and baseball players were allowed to be exported to the US while sending their profits home to Cuba. Cuba already has some of the best education and medicine in the world, the added economic activity would only serve as a catalyst for progress.
Cuba is also going to become the premier tourist destination of the Caribbean if Castro's death (or whatever...) brings about the political change most people expect. Cuba is not going to descend into anarchy like other nations might (with a dictator relinquishing power after almost 50 years of rule) because of the Cuban people and their intellectual prosperity. Though the average Cuban only has $3,000 a year in which to live off of, they are all provided with education from age 6 through college. Cuba could easily become a Caribbean Portugal in terms of prosperity and cultural significance. With all the Cubans in Miami, there will be a ton of travel between Havana and Miami once the embargo is lifted, not only for travel, but for business and commuting. If people fly from San Diego to LA almost every day for business, I can't imagine people wouldn't be doing the same between Cuba and Miami. It would only take a decade before Havana became the premier upscale Caribbean vacation city and the country would make billions from the tourism and added economic opportunities.
But what if Fidel is only resting or there is an even more hard-line successor waiting in the wings. Wouldn't it be in the best interest of the US to immediately open up trade to Cuba to destabilize the Socialist regime? I believe that the people wouldn't allow themselves to be dominated if they were able to see the effects of the embargo and how much better life will be without trade being blocked. American government (and the UN) still has this moronic belief that embargos cause dictators to fail, when in reality the dictators are actually helped greatly by an embargo. Think about it: Dictators thrive in closed societies that stifle creative thought and outside influences and that's exactly what an embargo does. It also causes the people to get poorer and poorer and sends what little money is made in the nation right to those in power. It is also used in propaganda to create an enemy of the nation (or organization) that heads up the embargo. Cuba is an amazing nation (though I've never been, I've had a roommate who spent 1 week there and my mother went and even saw Castro speak) with limitless potential and I cannot wait to see our government come to its senses and lift the embargo. Hopefully when Castro is officially done in Cuba, the American government will open up a dialogue with the new leader in the hopes of creating a gradual capitalization similiar to the way that the Chinese coast has emerged from strict Communist regulations. Cuba is looking like it could emerge from Castro's regime with great prosperity, but all it will take for Cuba to continue being our enemy 90 miles away is for us to continue what we're doing. It's not Castro that has caused problems for the people, it's our government that has made Castro's regime more strict and authoritarian. If Cuba was swimming in the wealth they could easily achieve, it could be more like Socialist Norway than Communist Russia. They don't need to end socialism to join the global community, they just need to be allowed in. Castro or no, it doesn't matter. Either that, or we can destabilize Cuba like we did in Iraq and watch as it becomes a breeding ground for terrorism and extremism.
The mere fact that Fidel officially passed his power on is enough to fuel the speculation that he's incapacitated in a way similar to Ariel Sharon. Sharon was not officially out of power until he'd already been in a coma for a couple of days, so it's possible that Castro is in a similar state. Article 94 of the Cuban Constitution which states "In cases of the absence, illness or death of the president of the Council of State, the first vice president assumes the president’s duties" would leave us to believe that Castro is officially out of power and his reign has come to an end. I for one, am not 100% convinced that this means an end to the Cuban embargo and the Communist spectre that sits 90 miles from Miami. Generally when power is passed from one family member to the other, there is little change in the makeup of the regime. However, Raul is at odds with the hardliners with his more liberal economic ideals and his secrecy. It has been said that Raul is even more secretive than Fidel, and that would not really bode well for the future of democracy in Cuba.
I have long believed that Cuba is the "sleeping giant" of the Western Hemisphere. There is no nation in a better position to explode onto the internation scene than Cuba. Unlike other nations with similar economic conditions (in terms of total GDP, the nations around Cuba are Uruguay, El Salvador, Turkmenistan, Oman, Nepal, North Korea, Cambodia and Cameroon) Cuba has the location, natural beauty, cultural similarity and an educated populace more able to adapt to modern Democratic society. Cuba is capable of becoming an economic power, possibly the superpower of the Caribbean, with the ability to serve as the jumping off point for cruises, international flights and tourism. Imagine if Cuban rum, cigars and baseball players were allowed to be exported to the US while sending their profits home to Cuba. Cuba already has some of the best education and medicine in the world, the added economic activity would only serve as a catalyst for progress.
Cuba is also going to become the premier tourist destination of the Caribbean if Castro's death (or whatever...) brings about the political change most people expect. Cuba is not going to descend into anarchy like other nations might (with a dictator relinquishing power after almost 50 years of rule) because of the Cuban people and their intellectual prosperity. Though the average Cuban only has $3,000 a year in which to live off of, they are all provided with education from age 6 through college. Cuba could easily become a Caribbean Portugal in terms of prosperity and cultural significance. With all the Cubans in Miami, there will be a ton of travel between Havana and Miami once the embargo is lifted, not only for travel, but for business and commuting. If people fly from San Diego to LA almost every day for business, I can't imagine people wouldn't be doing the same between Cuba and Miami. It would only take a decade before Havana became the premier upscale Caribbean vacation city and the country would make billions from the tourism and added economic opportunities.
But what if Fidel is only resting or there is an even more hard-line successor waiting in the wings. Wouldn't it be in the best interest of the US to immediately open up trade to Cuba to destabilize the Socialist regime? I believe that the people wouldn't allow themselves to be dominated if they were able to see the effects of the embargo and how much better life will be without trade being blocked. American government (and the UN) still has this moronic belief that embargos cause dictators to fail, when in reality the dictators are actually helped greatly by an embargo. Think about it: Dictators thrive in closed societies that stifle creative thought and outside influences and that's exactly what an embargo does. It also causes the people to get poorer and poorer and sends what little money is made in the nation right to those in power. It is also used in propaganda to create an enemy of the nation (or organization) that heads up the embargo. Cuba is an amazing nation (though I've never been, I've had a roommate who spent 1 week there and my mother went and even saw Castro speak) with limitless potential and I cannot wait to see our government come to its senses and lift the embargo. Hopefully when Castro is officially done in Cuba, the American government will open up a dialogue with the new leader in the hopes of creating a gradual capitalization similiar to the way that the Chinese coast has emerged from strict Communist regulations. Cuba is looking like it could emerge from Castro's regime with great prosperity, but all it will take for Cuba to continue being our enemy 90 miles away is for us to continue what we're doing. It's not Castro that has caused problems for the people, it's our government that has made Castro's regime more strict and authoritarian. If Cuba was swimming in the wealth they could easily achieve, it could be more like Socialist Norway than Communist Russia. They don't need to end socialism to join the global community, they just need to be allowed in. Castro or no, it doesn't matter. Either that, or we can destabilize Cuba like we did in Iraq and watch as it becomes a breeding ground for terrorism and extremism.
posted by Dan Pasternack at 3:58 PM
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