Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Get it before it's gone

As the world enters into the post-modern era it is quickly changing the way we should look at our future. 300 years ago we had an abundance of land and resources and could afford to ignore the long-term cost of development. Humankind requires an obscene amount of resources to flourish, and as we've advanced and modernized we've exponentially increased the requirements for life. In 1706 there was no electricity, no computers (obviously) and the main means of transportation was through the legs of a mammal and there were no pharmaceuticals either. Look how much we've changed since then, how this world has shifted from rural farming to urban service. If all that can happen in just 3 centuries, imagine how much quicker the progress will be now that we have machines to do most of the toughest work.


When I look at the future I see disaster pending. We're thumbing our noses at the wrath of nature and what we need to do in order to survive as a species. As the population balloons by the billions, our resources dwindle exponentially. Think Oil is expensive now? Imagine what it's going to be like when the 2 billion people living in China and India approach our American rates of consumption. The world's oil reserves do not replenish, and therefore the price can only go up based on the most simple rule of economics. As the supply goes down and the demand goes up, the price will rise.


This isn't just about Oil, and it's not just about land. Everything in nature is diminishing. Even trees are diminishing because we're clearing them out faster than we replant them. Certain materials will vanish while others might be able to be grown and kept alive, but as long as we continue to repopulate we will use up those non-renewable resources. Gold, copper, silver, coal, aluminum, uranium, etc. All of those serve very important functions in our technology, and could be the key to future progress, but their increasing scarcity will cause them to become prohibitively expensive for anyone except super-corporations and nations.


I'm not sure if anyone other than my friend Matt Dunphy has noticed the recent market for commodities and companies that manufacture, distribute or mine for these commodites. Prices have been skyrocketing for a couple years, and if you had bought one OZ of gold in May of 2005 for about $420, you'd be able to sell that same OZ for over $700. That's just one year and a ~75% increase in the price of gold. Just like Oil, there may be factors in the current geo-political climate which are bringing the price up, but the scarcity and lack of new sources of the material are more of a factor to the rising costs. So what this means is that if you want to be able to afford to live in the post-modern world, you have to invest now. Buy some gold and aluminum shares and sit on them until you need the money. You'll be happy that you bought that gold when you could afford it, because soon that OZ of gold may cost over $1,000 and you wont be able to afford it. Not only that, but you'll be able to profit off of these rising prices.


Remember the old saying: Buy land, because God ain't making any more of it. But you can just turn that "Land" into "____" because mineral will fit into that statement. You'll also be happy that you bought that material because I'm not the only person saying this...Wall Street bigwigs have been preaching this for years, but wouldn't you rather feel the profit and not the cost? So instead of bitching about how the prices go up totally as expected (if you thought oil would never increase in price as the supply diminished, you're just plain DUMB), be smart and use these increasing prices to your own advantage. Either that, or you can keep your money in that Savings account and watch that same $420 you turned into $700 by buying gold sit and grow from $420 to $448 in the Savings account. People never plan to fail, but most fail to plan. You know we're going to run out of resources, so the only way to go is to profit off of that.

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